Here’s a wrong number that ships in reports every day. Three
products: one sells 10 units at 90% margin, two sell 5,000
units each at 12%. “Average margin: 38%” — says
AVERAGE,
and it’s not lying about what it did: it averaged three numbers.
It’s lying about the business, where margin lives on ten
thousand real units, almost all of them at 12%. The true
blended margin is about 12.1%.
The disease has one name — averaging things that carry different weights — and one cure: the weighted average, whose whole machine in Excel is a single elegant function.
SUMPRODUCT: multiply pairs, then add
=SUMPRODUCT(Units, Margin) / SUM(Units)
SUMPRODUCT walks two ranges in parallel, multiplies each pair,
and sums the results — 10×90% + 5,000×12% + 5,000×12% — which
is precisely “total margin earned”. Divide by total units, and
every unit votes once, instead of every row voting once.
That’s the entire idea: AVERAGE gives each row a vote;
weighted averages give each unit a vote.
Where the disease appears, the same one-liner cures it: blended interest across accounts of different sizes (weight by balance), average class score across groups of different sizes (weight by headcount), portfolio return (weight by holding), average margin by region — the percentages lesson warned you never to average percentages with different bases; this is the machine that does it right.
The second life: conditions as arithmetic
SUMPRODUCT has a folkloric second career worth understanding, because you’ll inherit it. Before SUMIFS existed, conditional sums were written as:
=SUMPRODUCT((Region="North") * (Year=2026) * Amount)
The trick: comparisons produce TRUE/FALSE, arithmetic treats
them as 1/0, so multiplying by a condition zeroes out the
non-matching rows. It still works, and it still does the few
things SUMIFS can’t (OR-logic with +, calculations inside the
condition). But the modern rule of thumb: SUMIFS for
criteria, SUMPRODUCT for weights — and when you meet the old
incantation in an inherited workbook, you now
read it as arithmetic,
not magic.
The two honesty checks
Weights must be the real quantity. Weighting margin by revenue answers a different question than weighting by units — sometimes each is right; decide which question you’re answering before choosing the column, and label the result (“unit-weighted margin”). An unlabelled weighted average invites the percentage-points argument’s cousin: two people, both correct, about different questions.
Blanks are zero-weight rows, not missing ones. SUMPRODUCT
happily multiplies a blank as zero — a row with units but no
margin contributes nothing to the top and full weight to the
bottom, silently dragging the answer down. The
checks-row instinct
applies: COUNTBLANK the margin column before trusting the
blend, and decide what a gap
actually means.
One multiply-then-add, one division, one labelled answer. The average that respects size — and the end of the 38% that never existed.